Will Kalshi or Polymarket launch a conditional market in 2024?
Basic
11
Ṁ435Dec 31
32%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Conditional markets are useful to guide decision making.
Resolves YES when Kalshi or Polymarket provide at least one conditional market people trade on.
Resolves NO in 2025.
By "conditional market", I mean something like Metaculus provides:
It needs to be somehow mechanically different to the multiple choice markets, they already provide.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@MaybeNotDepends I want to be liberal about it, but this is not what people mean when talking about "conditional markets". Added some more description.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Kalshi still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024?
98% chance
Will Kalshi hire Standard in 2024?
41% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by Polymarket or Kalshi by end of 2025?
15% chance
Will Manifold Markets be more popular than Kalshi by the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will Kalshi continue offering interest on cash AND open positions until the conclusion of 2026?
50% chance
Will Polymarket fail by the end of 2024?
1% chance
Will Polymarket still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024?
97% chance
Is there a Kalshi/Polymarket arbitrage regarding the GPT-5 release?
96% chance
Who will launch a real-money conditional market first: Polymarket or Kalshi?
Will Kalshi's market on the existence of a room temperature superconductor by the end of 2024 resolve "yes"?
3% chance