Will Kalshi or Polymarket launch a conditional market in 2024?
Mini
5
Ṁ102Dec 31
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Conditional markets are useful to guide decision making.
Resolves YES when Kalshi or Polymarket provide at least one conditional market people trade on.
Resolves NO in 2025.
By "conditional market", I mean something like Metaculus provides:
It needs to be somehow mechanically different to the multiple choice markets, they already provide.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
@MaybeNotDepends I want to be liberal about it, but this is not what people mean when talking about "conditional markets". Added some more description.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Kalshi have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?
50% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by Polymarket or Kalshi by end of 2025?
24% chance
Who will launch a real-money conditional market first: Polymarket or Kalshi?
Will Manifold Markets be more popular than Kalshi by the end of 2024?
20% chance
Will Kalshi be able to legally offer US election markets by 2030?
94% chance
Will Kalshi still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024?
93% chance
Will Kalshi hire Standard in 2024?
41% chance
Will Kalshi pay interest on contracts?
34% chance
Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the CFTC? (Ṁ2000 subsidy)
94% chance
Will Kalshi be running any US election market by the end of 2025?
97% chance