Trump Wins 2024 x Will the United States abandon its policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2028?
Plus
30
Ṁ40152028
34%
Trump wins 2024 AND the United States abandons its policy of "strategic ambiguity" by 2028
62%
Trump wins 2024 AND the United States does not abandon its policy of "strategic ambiguity" by 2028
1.9%
Trump loses 2024 AND the United States abandons its policy of "strategic ambiguity" by 2028
2%
Trump loses 2024 AND the United States does not abandon its policy of "strategic ambiguity" by 2028
Live-updating visualization of the conditional probabilities and correlation coefficient:
The answer will be chosen according to the resolution of these two markets:
/duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres
/MarcusAbramovitch/will-the-united-states-abandon-its-117c19944677
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I've used this extremely cool tool to visualize the probabilities here! Apparently people think this is something where Trump might really behave differently from Biden or other possible presidents!
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