Previously: /AlyssaVance/will-bytedance-soon-release-an-open
On December 6th, 2023, the day Google's Gemini was announced, Quanquan Gu (Director at ByteDance Research) said:
"Uncertain about GPT-5, but a super-strong model (more powerful than Gemini) is expected to arrive anytime now."
"Open source?"
"Open model weights."
https://twitter.com/QuanquanGu/status/1732484036160012798
Resolves YES if this happens unambiguously before July. Comparison will be between the strongest publicly available version of any new Bytedance model with open weights and the strongest publicly available version of Gemini Ultra at the time of that Bytedance model's release.
If there is no such ByteDance model, this resolves NO by default.
I will not trade in this market, to keep myself unbiased. Let me know if you have any suggestions for any updates to the specific resolution criteria within the spirit of the market.
Related questions
@RanaG Open to suggestions, but I did say it has to be unambiguously stronger so it should be obvious even to a layperson just from the consensus of reliable reporting. I'm not convinced we actually need to be more specific when the Bytedance director wasn't more specific when he said that it would be more powerful.
Yes, July is too soon
I think the traders are going to be biased toward gemini since ByteDance is affiliated with tikok which does not have a very high rep rn
It’s impossible to trade without ByteDance insider info