This market is about if GEM continues to be the person responsible for the 538 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast. His current job title is "editorial director of data analytics" but this market is not exactly about his job title.

Rather, this market resolves YES if GEM continues to be the individual person who could be most said to be "responsible" for the forecast. As in, if the forecast is good he should get the credit, if the forecast is bad he should get the blame. If everything about this situation stays as it is through November 5th, this market resolves YES. If he is let go and the model is redone, this market resolves NO.

If he keeps his job but they hire someone to significantly revamp the model so it's better, this market likely resolves NO. Likewise if he is fired but the model stays mostly the same and they just keep updating it with new polling data, this market likely resolves YES.

I will not trade in this market, to remain unbiased if any judgement calls are required.