This is my version of /MarkIngraham/manifold-markets-financial-crisis , a market that is often linked to but which has an inactive creator and unnecessarily narrow resolution criteria.
A time period resolves yes if a Manifold Financial Crisis occurs during that time. Multiple time periods can resolve yes.
This market resolves based on the spirit of the question in my judgement. I would generally expect to see many accounts going negative and staff intervening in a manifold financial crisis, but those criteria are neither necessary nor sufficient. I am open to suggestions of how to define a crisis more formally.
Things that would not count:
A couple of accounts going very negative from new year's eve resolutions going against them, but most of the active users of the site coming out of it fine.
Heavy losses to many users after the election, but which are an expected part of making large bets on a binary outcome.
A temporary bug that looks like it will cause a financial crisis but is quickly fixed.
Every Whalebait market except Whales vs Minnows.
Things that would count:
An event like the the the Post-Person-Of-The-Year loan crisis, in which a bug was discovered that meant many users owed tens of thousands of mana in loans that they didn't realize had not been repaid. Many active users then went negative after the loans were paid back all at once, and staff had to step in and give out a bunch of extra loans to bring people positive.
A market or series of markets resolve in an extremely unexpected way, such as LK-99 being a room temperature superconductor, and many accounts are completely wiped out. This would count regardless of if staff steps in or not.
A massive bug that causes permanent economic damage which staff can't reverse.
Whales vs Minnows.
I will not trade in this market.
Related questions
Would this resolve YES if the Tumbles Financial Complex collapses?
Related market: Will the Tumbles Financial Complex experience a crisis and require a bailout? | Manifold
maybe because WvM required giving money back? so it was a legit financial intervention.
anyways def didn't mean financial crisis if it resolves NO. i meant if it resolves YES—a good number of people losing a large chunk of net worth. but those positions were assembled without loans, so makes sense that "a lot of people lose half their net worth" is not necessarily a crisis
if you get enough people going hard on No and it resolves Yes, the comment about "many accounts going negative" could be satisfied, no?
I don't think it needed to be akin to wvm and Manifold staff wouldn't intervene on a clearly defined market with an outcome out of anyone's control.
if you get enough people going hard on No and it resolves yes, the comment about "many accounts going negative" could be satisfied, no?
yeah that's fair. not directly—people can't lose balance from it, just "not get their balance back". but if other loaned markets resolve after that, we could see more negatives.
(but really i think most people aren't that leveraged outside of election stuff, so it'll be few negative balances outside of that. and then once the election hits i'm sure plenty will go negative, even with loans having been removed long before)
you're right I'm on my absolute deathbed delerium here so I'm imagining impossible outcomes I guess. but maybe this means some new suggested scenarios to add to the description now that loans are gone etc.
though you have a point depending on who gets involved to what degree as there are people with other outstanding loans so even if not negative, it could send people into a pretty shitty place as a result
"wipe out accounts" like LK-99 could be relevant still!
This market is generally too vibes based to say exactly what will or won't count in these hypotheticals but broadly speaking I don't think refunding just TSLAbull is enough to make a financial crisis and although there would be heavy losses in a YES resolution, It so far wouldn't be as bad as peak LK-99 which was the example for a crisis like that. Maybe people will keep growing their positions until it would count, though.
@Joshua Specifically due to the exchange rate adjustment, the mass sell-offs to donate, the self immolations, and staff stepping on to give out loans to users and airdropping 10k mana as stimulus is all enough to satisfying the criteria.
@Joshua all my limit orders are cancelling bc I'm out of mana, for the first time in almost a year 😭
@shankypanky I mean, it's partially my fault. I donated $300 before the devaluation