Bronze Gang Bronze Gang Bronze Gang

This market is pretty much a stock now. As long as we keep bailing out Tumbles, it can never resolve YES. But as long as Tumbles keeps taking out loans, it can never resolve NO.

All time trading profit of negative 2.3mio, while drowning in high-interest loans. Why is this cowboy financial complex always getting bailed out?

@Simon74fe

@Ziddletwix I will not be left holding the bag.

@Simon74fe The Tumbles Financial Complex is a Manifold institution.

Besides, how would superforecasters make profit without subsidizing a few whales to be counterparties?

@Simon74fe It's too big to fail

@spiderduckpig Systemically important

I may have put about 260k on the liberals to lose the election

@Tumbles We thank you for your service

I believe in you.

@UniversalFC 🧡 🧡 🧡

Okay @Tumbles

-You have 14 (fourteen) markets where you registered a profit or loss of >25k mana (that's a lot! I don't have a SINGLE market that meets that criterion)

-ALL 14 of those are losses. That is to say, your 14 largest profits/losses on manifold markets are ALL losses.

-How?! Like, how is that possible? That seems incredibly unlucky, to the point where you should start just betting the opposite of whatever you would normally bet, perhaps.

@bens Yeah this is the wildest statistic on manifold

@bens to be fair, ~half of them (& the vast majority of the mana losses) are just variants of the same n=1 for biden dropping out. for true "different events that went against tumbles", you could tally something like:

• biden dropping out (~6.5 of those markets)

• kamala losing election (several more)

• biden pardoning fauci

• TSLA not reaching $275

• women more accurate in self assessment

• Manifold Next Word Prediction Model Experiment (looks like there were some partially offsetting profits there, haven't tallied it up)

• the URL of manifold politics

• conservative party winning next election in canada (paper loss, could flip)

• will tumbles pay back a loan (paper loss, direct derivative of the rest)

still the GOATed track record, nothing else on manifold like it

@Ziddletwix Note that TSLA not reaching 275 are fake losses, I predicted that right but explicitly sold off shares to someone at a discounted price to them as a way to settle a debt to them.

MNWPM was also a fake loss, I made mana on that in a settlement agreement in a whalebait showdown, I just lost paper profits resolving the settlement.

My biggest losses vs @bens

@Tumbles I admire that you take more risks than me. I'm heavily limited on this platform because I rarely bet more than a few thousand mana on any individual market.

Seeking 50k loan, to be returned before end of October along with a 20k fee

@Tumbles any amount with 40% fee?

@Vortex Ya sure!

@Tumbles What would you do if you had 250k balance today?

@Eliza I have an investment opportunity with an high EV that other users don't have access to, but I don't think I should explain it at the moment 🤔

@Vortex 🫡