@TimothyJohnson5c16 Need more liquidity? I am in need of mana

1. The "Fee of 500 mana per day" loans:

• Do the fees have due dates (eg. once a month) or are they only due when you repay the principal?

• Can you choose to delay repayment of principal indefinitely? Can the lender call in your loan? How many days' notice after calling in the loan will the repayment be due?

2. Do you plan to "declare bankruptcy" and resolve YES before such due dates (or Aug 31)?

I told my creditors the daily fee loans would count as late at the end of August. I can extend those if my lenders explicitly agree to, but I'm not planning to ask.

There is no formal process for declaring bankruptcy on Manifold. This market resolves YES as soon as I miss a due date. I may or may not resolve the market YES early if the resolution becomes guaranteed, that would be kind of like declaring bankruptcy.

@Tumbles which loans are backed by real money?

the ones accruing daily interest and the conditional one to conflux

@Tumbles what are you going to do if this resolves YES and you cant feasibly repay debts? Are you going to leave Manifold, or create an alt?

I would probably make an alt. I'm not sure if I would start over as a trader or just have the alt for things like making markets. I guess I could just ask @Orangey to make markets for me instead of creating a new alt.

Manifold says Biden has a 60% of not being the dem nominee, so this market is about 25% too low

I'll sell at 55% to anyone wanting more YES shares at that price. I'm broke so can't place a large sell order rn (no sell limit orders manifold L) but if you wanna take that lmk

wait tumbles, if you are like bust on manifold but pay back your loans through cash transfers or an alt, does this market resolve NO?

or do you have to also pay back the mana from the manifold bank? idk

Yes, cash transfers and other workarounds count. I don't necessarily need to get my net worth to neutral. That said, I will abide by the spirit of the market and not do anything that feels like I didn't actually have to repay people.

Well, it finally happened. My net worth is now negative.

“Forward, the Light Brigade!”

Was there a man dismayed?

Not though the soldier knew

   Someone had blundered.

   Theirs not to make reply,

   Theirs not to reason why,

   Theirs but to do and die.

   Into the valley of Death

   Rode the six hundred.

Just remember, if you ever need a quick infusion of mana in your balance, there's always the nuclear option...

/Tumbles/will-tumbles-punch-someone-before-j

R.I.P. Pacifist Tumbles. It's time for Mean Tumbles.

Good god lol. 51k used to be two days of daily loans for me

So in case this isn't clear to some people, if Biden is not the nominee, this market is 100% going to resolve YES unless I get gifted a million mana (maybe 1.1 million or 1.2 million).

If Biden really does only have a 71% chance of being the nominee like Manifold says, then this market should be at least 29%.

you aren't bailing yourself out?

If I pay you 100M now will you pay me 100kM if biden is not nominee, the market doesn’t resolve YES, AND you don’t get gifted more than like 100k mana? At 100% prob that’s free mana for you. Im confused in this case why you have a NO limit order at 20% if the nomination matket gives a better price, though

This market should be higher

@nikki I'm not bailing myself out if it costs 1k+ dollars 😅

@Bayesian I think your proposed deal forces this market to stay open indefinitely. As for that NO limit order it's just a holdover I haven't bothered to cancel. My balance is negative 10k so i probably doesn't matter

Oh. Good point

@Tumbles any interest in buying some yes shares?

I'm not buying shares that are only worth something if I stop playing

well, could be a hedge against defaulting: if you're about to default, the value of these shares could go way up!

The hedge would be of literally no value, I can't benefit from a few extra shares if my balance and net worth are both -1,200,000M