Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?
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Manifold announces end to daily loans
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[image]Ladies and gentleman, I’m afraid it’s looking pretty joever. My balance is -731k. Once the loan markets resolve, counting my outstanding loans, I’ll be almost three million mana in the red. It’s been an honour meming with you all. To my investors/creditors, I’m sorry it ends this way. This was always going to end in either glory or disaster, and unfortunately it came to disaster. I’ll make a mini final report once the dust settles and markets finish resolving.
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[image]
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I hope you're happy America
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@Tumbles I think I might actually make it 😆
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Yesterday I lost almost 100k mana, Donald Trump was inaugurated and immediately began acting as expected, my streamer man got credibly accused of sex crimes, and my bamboo shrimp died. WHAT A FUCKED UP DAY [image][image](Photos are off the shrimp's widow, he was at least twice as big)
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[image]This week only, I am offering to DOUBLE YOUR MANA! You read that correctly! Here at the Tumbles Financial Complex for a limited time only we are DOUBLING YOUR MANA! Simply send any amount of mana between 1k and 50k, and in just two months we will send you back DOUBLE THAT MANA DOUBLE YOUR MANA
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[image]Overnight profit spike estimation in the case of a Conservative election win has now surpassed two million mana (estimation assumes my loan market drops to 5%)
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Resolves YES if @Tumbles is even slightly late to pay back any mana loan that they intentionally accepted. Any extensions must have been agreed upon in advance.

@Tumbles may choose to resolve this market NO if they don't owe any mana to other users. Once they do so, they will be prohibited from taking on any new loans for three months.

I will use this description as a ledger of what I owe and when I owe it. I will update it as appropriate. All amounts listed include any fees or interest associated with the loan. Dates listed are the final day during which payment is not late (PST -8:00).

May 4th 2025 - Ṁ22,000 @bens

May 5th 2025 - Ṁ16,239 @Robincvgr

May 6th 2025 - Ṁ169,000 @TheWabiSabi

May 7th 2025 - Ṁ15,000 @Mana

May 7th 2025 - Ṁ24,000 @CryptoNeoLiberalist

May 7th 2025 - Ṁ15,000 @copiumarc

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @nikki

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ4,000 @Bayesian

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @10thOfficial

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @zsig

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ80,000 @Gen

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ6,000 @Vortex

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ4,000 @jcb

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ100,000 @Tripping

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ84,138 @Quillist

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ4,000 @A

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @spiderduckpig

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ2,674 @Robincvgr

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ3,392 @mana

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @No_uh

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @equinoxhq

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ4,000 @JeffreyDeLucca

June 8th 2025 - Ṁ20,000 @wasabipesto

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ20,000 @TheSchwa

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ4,000 @Fion

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @Mh

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ20,000 @sophiawisdom

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @copiumarc

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @BlackCrusade

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @AleaNiled

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ10,002 @Qoiuoiuoiu

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @Nightsquared

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @khang2009

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @atmidnight

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @bence

June 9th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @draaglom

June 10th 2025 - Ṁ2,002 @crowlsyong

June 11th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @kopecs

June 11th 2025 - Ṁ20,000 @copiumarc

June 11th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @Odoacre

June 11th 2025 - Ṁ5,000 @10thOfficial

June 11th 2025 - Ṁ2,690 @CryptoNeoLiberalist

June 12th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @ONEMILLION

July 31st 2025 - Ṁ33,000 @TimothyJohnson5c16

July 31st 2025 - Ṁ56,800 @AndrewG
August 2nd 2025 - Ṁ16,500 @ScipioFabius
August 31st 2025 - Ṁ79,000 @Joshua
August 31st 2025 - Ṁ39,000 @EBurk
October 31st 2025 Ṁ70,000 @UniversalFC
October 31st 2025 - Ṁ56,000 @Vortex
October 31st 2025 - Ṁ70,000 @DrDerek
Jan 7th 2026 - Ṁ269,000 @AmmonLam

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,414 @Fion

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ69,696 @GazDownright

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ9,696 @Tripping

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,804 @Robincvgr

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,000 @Odoacre

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ30,000 @EBurk

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,414 @crowlsyong

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ14,070 @cthor

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,000 @jim

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ15,000 @copiumarc

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,000 @zsig

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ25,200 @ahalekelly

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,000 @robert

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ10,176 @mana

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,000 @bohaska

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ10,140 @NivlacM

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,000 @GastonKessler

April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,000 @spiderduckpig
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,000 @A
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ60,000 @Simon74fe
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ18,000 @manifoldgod

Total: 1,775,047

Loans paid off or cleared since Biden dropped out: Ṁ981,800 (short term loans not included)

Total loans previously paid off on time before Biden dropped out: 711,679

Check out the Tumbles Financial Complex! 💸

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Get protected!!! In the economics of today, I calling it the Tumblingnomics, mana is always tumbling around in the tumblers, some shake out, some gone stuck to the sides even. You do not know about it where it is going? Ring-a-ling-a-ding-dong!!! Call the racoon!!! He will take the fee, but it is 15% lower than any other option out there to protecting YOUR investment. Choose your own price. Choose the adventure! But do not be the sucker here today. Tumbles is the great mans, but here today, in the unprecedented times, you need some of the security. 🦝 🤑 Don't be the suckers!!!

@CryptoNeoLiberalist Rick the RISK raccoon saw his batman signal.

And this cool c̶o̶o̶n̶ raccoon has a big announcement that'll make ya swoon and is coming soon...

@crowlsyong heads up that c**n is a racial slur in some contexts lol

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/coon

@TheAllMemeingEye Well I didn't' know that. Why the heck....gah

I'll just always spell out raccoon.

🦝RISK is an equal opportunity insurance provider, we do not discriminate.

In hall of coin where whispers trade,

Where fate is bought and bets are laid,

There dwelt a craft, both sharp and sly—

Prediction’s game ‘neath seer’s sky.

No cards were drawn, no bones were cast,

But minds did duel with knowledge vast.

A market made of mortal thought,

Where questions sold and answers bought.

Then strode in Tumbles, bold yet lean,

With glint of hope and pockets keen.

He took a loan with eager hand,

To bet where wiser folk would stand.

“A little debt shall turn to gold,

For truths are known, and markets told.”

But fortune’s wind blew cold and wrong,

And Tumbles’ debts grew loud and long.

To pay the first, he begged a next,

Each time more gold, each term more vexed.

He climbed a stair of empty air,

Built tall with dreams and gambler’s prayer.

This tower grew, a dread device,

With every loan a greater price.

“Returns shall come,” he’d ever cry—

As watchers laughed and markets sly.

The folk gave name to this strange spell:

“The Tumbles Complex”—doom to dwell.

A show of debt, of risk, of fall,

A reckoning both grim and tall.

And now the jest that draws the crowd:

A market loud, a wager proud—

“Will Tumbles pay, or yet delay?”

The people bet. The watchers stay.

So mark this tale, ye bold of mind,

Let not false odds your fortunes bind.

For markets shift, and folly grows

Where hope is staked on what one knows.

Updated estimation of profit spike if Pierre were to win the election today. (Election is April 28th. Estimation assumes loan markets fall to 5% chance of default.)

nice

@Tumbles I'm tempted to make a poll asking whether people who frequently make "69 nice" jokes have ever actually 69'd, with the prediction that there's a strong anti correlation haha

You guys know you can just bet on the canadian election yourselves instead of giving tumbles money to bet on the canadian election for you, right?

@Joshua i think the play may be to bet against tumbles there to give you a better price, hedged with the loan? idk

@Joshua and if he loses that bet, there is still an option/chance he finds money in a different way

@Joshua even if he loses his Canadian election bets I believe in Tumbles' ability to pay back his debt to me eventually

@Tripping @TheWabiSabi I won't be able to spend 10k USD on mana within the next couple months unless something very cool and surprising happens. But perhaps I could negotiate an ultra steep discount...

I should probably look ahead and start getting really flirty with Joshua. He seems like the most accessible admin to lovebomb and manipulate 🤔

@Joshua They're expecting another bailout

@Tumbles "perhaps I could negotiate an ultra steep discount..."

I may be able to provide you one in the near future ;)

@Mana Intriguing... mana from Mana themself...

filled a Ṁ420 NO at 69% order

@Tripping @TheWabiSabi perhaps there is another avenue for raising bailout funds....

@Tumbles DM me, have some mana to share

@TheWabiSabi what terms, date and rate? thx

@Tumbles best to specify in payment note for transparency

@deagol it's added to the list. 2 weeks with a 3,3x'ish return.

@Tumbles Sent.

@Tumbles Triple mana? Sex is still on the table though right? Seems like the Tumbles offers are getting worse.

@HillaryClinton Sex is on a much longer timeframe, the triple is way higher APR

opened a Ṁ5,000 NO at 89% order

@Robincvgr Sex still better by my Math. The chances of a payoff are petty high if he wins either way.

@HillaryClinton Sex is off the table now, that only available for a week

@Tumbles there is no expiration date on your sex offer. I demand more sex.

@HillaryClinton Alright, since you asked so seductively, you can submit a sex loan if you wish

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