I hope you're happy America

@Tumbles is this due today, or are you renegotiating terms?

Loan due if and when Trump wins 2024 election - Ṁ24,000 @Conflux

@deagol I gotta pay that I'll ask Conflux how he wants it 💀

@Tumbles I assume you paid it since you removed it from description?

@deagol ya

@Tumbles How much mana cash do you have now? Where was the payment sent from/to?

🪦🪦🪦

@JamesGrugett @Austin @SG @Manifold

Is this where I can come to claim my +Ṁ1,400,000 loan? Thank you in advance. 🙏

I think that would be fair.

I too am requesting such the bailout for me.

@CryptoNeoLiberalist @Predictor oh noooooooooooooo Jimmy why? Was it really worth it Jimmy?

Who in here is knowing any of the bird law?

@Tumbles It is quite shocking what you are doing here and how it is all going down hill from here so much. I will ponder it again, but I am not for it so very much right now to feeling right for me.

@Tumbles does @Manifold count as a user for the purposes of this market?

No, especially since it has no due date and I can't be late to pay it back

@Tumbles I am a no holder so undoubtedly biased, but I think this is the wrong interpretation. You got a loan that you cannot pay back. Since it has no due date, it is fine to extend the resolution indefinitely, but you cannot resolve as YES.

@JimAusman I'm surprised the market has not started trading higher now that mana costs 10x as much.

@Eliza Why would this market ever resolve YES? He has a 300k balance and owes 200k on loans he says are relevant to the market. I suppose he could choose to take out more loans and make it possible to default?

@Gabrielle His balance is 4961....of his 298,153 net worth, a huge portion is banked in this market, right? Looks like he has a loan of 405k against a position of 480k NO. I don't think there is any guarantee he can pay back the loans he's listing, he hasn't paid them yet, and the cost for him to purchase the required mana has just gone up by 10x compared to what it was a few days ago.

Looks like the lion's share of the rest of his net worth is tied up on Kamala Yes, so if that doesn't go well, he'll certainly be in trouble here without other magic?

@Eliza if tumbles sells out of his big kamala position, that's ~170k, which gets him most of the way there, and selling off other smaller positions could close the gap (his 2nd biggest prez position isn't any help, it's underwater at 42k relative to the 68k loan).

OTOH, if tumbles' plan was just to sell the position & pay off the loans before the election, i'm not sure why he would have stored all the loan money in kamala YES in the first place. so this market does seem a bit undervalued: P(tumbles wants to gamble) * P(trump wins) seems not so low.

but i would not bet on that either way because i think the current planned resolution is obviously wrong given the market description, and i wouldn't recommend betting on markets like that.

Resolves YES if @Tumbles is even slightly late to pay back any mana loan that they intentionally accepted. Any extensions must have been agreed upon in advance.

@Tumbles may choose to resolve this market NO if they don't owe any mana to other users. Once they do so, they will be prohibited from taking on any new loans for three months.

Can the market resolve YES? Well, the 1.4M loan doesn't have a due date, so it can't make this market resolve YES (it'd have to be a different loan). Silly, but fair enough, that's what the market says.

Can the market resolve NO? "Tumbles may choose to resolve this market NO if they don't owe any mana to other users". Tumbles received a managram whose 1 word description was "Loan". The payment has been repeatedly called a loan in other contexts. If James wants to change his mind and call it a "gift" instead, fair enough, that's part of the game. But as long as it's referred to as a "loan", Tumbles still owes mana, & can't resolve it NO (I honestly don't really see what the alternative interpretation would be).

This can only resolve NO if @Manifold is not a “user” which seems like a very convoluted and unreasonable definition of the term. Or if @Tumbles digs themselves out of this hole, which seems unlikely.

I do NOT understand why manifold is giving you money

I imagine there may be multiple motivations here, but here's some math that shows why it is actually profitable for manifold to do this:

Tumbles has 480k NO shares in this market. If tumbles goes bankrupt then manifold has to pay that out because tumbles is leaving manifold holding the bag.

Manifold gave tumbles a loan of 1.4m but tumbles was deeply negative, so in reality what they did was give tumbles ~300k of mana and the rest is just moving the negative mana debt from one place (tumbles balance) to another (the unofficial loan ledger).

300k is just enough for Tumbles to pay off all the loans listed here. So Tumbles can avoid ever defaulting (since the loan was of indefinite duration, tumbles never has to default to manifold). Therefore, Manifold ends up spending 300k to bail out Tumbles to save 480k in payouts on this market. Profit! (That's on top of the million+ mana negative balance that Tumbles already had before Manifold bailed him out, which is mostly a sunk cost - but there is a chance Tumbles could recoup and pay back some of that mana, which would be even better for Manifold if it happens.)

If that is indeed what they are doing, it is a clever profitable trade. Is it one that it makes sense for the manifold "central bank" to perform? That's questionable. But you could argue that the bailout is good for Tumbles' creditors, good for Tumbles, good for Manifold's bank account, and only bad for the people who bet YES on this market (though you could further argue that this is a skill issue - they could have predicted the dynamics here and predicted the bailout!) On the other hand though, it's probably bad to reward traders who find ways like this to drain mana out of the Manifold central bank.

Although, if Tumbles bets the mana instead of just paying back the loans, which he said he's doing, and if those bets go poorly, Tumbles could still default, and then Manifold could potentially lose up to 300k PLUS 480k here. I hope they didn't forget about this possibility haha.

Excellent breakdown by Jack.

TL;DR I'm too big to fail 😎