@Manifold recently "loaned" Ṁ1,400,000 to @Tumbles :
My primary information source for resolutions will be Manifold tools (i.e. looking at profit/portfolio value graphs) when possible, but I expect to rely on statements from Manifold and Tumbles for some resolutions, and I expect to largely take these statements at face value. For this market, "before 2026" is equivalent to "by the end of 2025" (and this is also true for other years in the obvious way). I may extend the market if options resolving after 2025 are added.
I will not bet on this market.
Update 2025-04-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Detail Provided by Creator:
Baseline Profit: Tumbles had -1,869,694 all-time profits when the market opened.
Threshold for YES Resolution: The market resolves YES if Tumbles has less than -3,269,694 all-time profits at the end of the year (implying an additional loss of at least 1,400,000 over the period).
1,000People are also trading
@Nightsquared You can probably edit that into the option for clarity, something like:
Tumbles will lose it all before 2026 (all-time profit less than -Ṁ3,269,694)
@Gameknight hypothetically, could Mira reactivate their account and then pay it off? It seems plausible, but maybe unlikely enough that this should be resolved now anyways.
@Nightsquared Mira is an individual, not just a Manifold account. They are active on Twitter, and have an alt on Manifold they've used to take care stuff before
@Tumbles At the same time, the message specifically tags the account, and the account has been deleted, so it should resolve no. If it were just Mira without the "@", then I would agree with you, but the answer specifically tags an account, no?
@Gameknight No, the answer does not specifically say mana has to be transferred from that account. It links Mira's profile to add clarity to which Mira the answer is referring to, since there is more than one person on the planet named Mira.
@Wott You used the daily loan system and some whimsical hijinks to fine Manifold a couple million mana for banning their buddy
Particularly relevant market: /nikki/will-tumbles-succeed-in-restructuri
Fun prop market I never saw before now! Adding it to the recently cleaned up Tumbles Financial Complex dashboard