What will be true of Manifold's "loan" to Tumbles? | Manifold

What will be true of Manifold's "loan" to Tumbles?

Plus

11

Ṁ2436

2026

46%

Tumbles will not pay any of it off before 2026

32%

Tumbles will have to pay it off in some form, and will be late on a payment before 2026

7%

Manifold will "loan" at least Ṁ1,000,000 more to Tumbles before 2026

12%

Tumbles will lose it all before 2026 (profits between now and 12/31/2025 is < Ṁ-1,400,000)

33%

Tumbles will have to pay it off in some form, with payments due before 2026, and will not be late on any payment before 2026

29%

Tumbles will quit Manifold before repaying the loan

50%

Tumbles will "pay" it back but not with Mana...

13%

It will be wiped/solved/paid by @Mira

@Manifold recently "loaned" Ṁ1,400,000 to @Tumbles :

My primary information source for resolutions will be Manifold tools (i.e. looking at profit/portfolio value graphs) when possible, but I expect to rely on statements from Manifold and Tumbles for some resolutions, and I expect to largely take these statements at face value. For this market, "before 2026" is equivalent to "by the end of 2025" (and this is also true for other years in the obvious way). I may extend the market if options resolving after 2025 are added.

I will not bet on this market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Tumbles Financial Complex

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1,000

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3.00

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bought Ṁ861 YES

Resolves YES

@NivlacM Sexual favors, beat up in an alley, or a pound of flesh?

@EBurk now that's my idea of a good Friday night

opened a Ṁ69 NO at 32% order

Particularly relevant market: /nikki/will-tumbles-succeed-in-restructuri

bought Ṁ69 NO

The 'trending' sorting option might be nicer on this market than 'highest first'

@Tumbles boo my option is on top right now. Right where it should be

reposted

Fun prop market I never saw before now! Adding it to the recently cleaned up Tumbles Financial Complex dashboard

That is a godly good ai banner art.

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During which month will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?

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Related questions

Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?

During which month will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?

Will any member of the Manifold community in good standing default in bad faith on a mana loan?

Will Tumbles succeed in restructuring or bailing out the Tumbles Financial Complex?

When will Manifold run out of money?

When Tumbles pays his loans off, will his net worth be greater than his poker losses?

How will Manifold die?

Who will own Manifold at the end of 2024?

When will Manifold resolve this bet?

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