Will Iran strike the British Overseas Territory of Akrotiri and Dhekelia before 2030?
Basic
4
Ṁ642030
32%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Akrotiri and Dhekelia are a set of British military bases that are a sort of exclave on Cyprus. The RAF used them as a base to fly from when shooting down Iranian drones in April 2024.
The question will resolve YES if:
either the Iranian state conducts military strikes in these territories
or a terrorist or militia group conducts kinetic attacks and it is the opinion of Manifold that Iran was 'responsible' for it.
In the case the latter, Manifold opinion can either be taken as a consensus of market participants or as a poll with mutually agreed wording
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Iran strike directly against Israel in 2024 following Israel’s 26th October 2024 strikes on Iran?
48% chance
Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of 2025?
41% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
36% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?
35% chance
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
54% chance
Will Iran use Iraq to stage an attack on Israel before the end of 2024?
41% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
56% chance
[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?
37% chance
Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?
14% chance
Will Iran be a democracy in 2030?
25% chance