can you add JD Vance?

I think you can do it yourself @ZaneMiller ?

ah, sorry

No problem!

Donald Trump

Trump shouldn't count, he's already the 45th, you can't have two indexes.

Grover Cleveland is considered the 22nd and 24th President of the United States.

No he's the 22nd. William McKinley is the 24th.

If you want to count William McKinley as the 24th, that would make Trump the 44th.

I'm willing to bite this bullet. But that makes this market even less predictable, it's asking about the president after next.

If Trump becomes President again, he will be 45th and 47th, similar to Grover Cleveland, according to official sources and the link provided in the market description.

Regardless of what would be the ideal nomenclature, it’s now well-accepted that the standard meaning of “Nth” includes a single person being Nth and (N+2)th.

Trump should be higher than 45% even if you don't think he's gonna win. There's the Trump win % + the Trump runs and wins in 2028 % which is nonzero

His age is already an issue for voters in 2024, I didn't think he'd run again in 2028 at 82 (well, hopefully).

Yes, but if Trump wins in 2024 he'll also be considered the 47th President. So we have to add the probability of Trump winning (let's say 50%) with the chance of him running and winning in 2028, which may be small but is nonzero. Personally, I think Trump should be at 55-60% based on this

@jbca The first in the line of succession has got to have a meaningful chance, I’d think.