Buying NO on vague priors that (1) significant legislative change is unlikely to be completed by the end of 2024 (e.g., a bill would take a long time to be passed and signed)—and, although off the top of my head I know less about bureaucratic change or whether this could be implemented that way, I think it would also be unlikely for that to happen very quickly, although my instinct is it could potentially happen a bit more quickly than legislative change, and (2) I’m not aware of any significant political will pushing for this change, although maybe it exists and is surprisingly uncontroversial and that’s why I haven’t seen it. I’ll potentially come back and do some more research on this when I get a chance.

Does the policy just have to be announced by the end of 2024, or does it have to come into effect / be implemented by then? Also, does it have to be documented that there was a 10% increase, or does the 10% increase just have to be legally possible?

@0x799 Can be just announced as long as the increase is clearly likely.