Which betting market will have the most accurate result for the 2024 US election
Basic
5
Ṁ52
resolved Aug 14
ResolvedN/A
51%
Manifold
20%
PredictIt
7%
Oddschecker
7%
Bovada
7%
Neds
7%
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Resolving N/A since the market creator wishes to leave manifold and this resolution criteria is pretty subjective

how would you define accuracy? cuz some markets on manifold are probably gonna be open after the winner of the election is projected. Maybe have a cut-off time such as morning of election day? Or moment before first polls close?

@dittopoop Agreed. Changed

@Lawdog How are you defining the criteria for this market?

@MickBransfield Any reputable article or study that provides a critical analysis and seems definitive and comes to a conclusion.

@Lawdog So what happens if PredictIt users correctly predict the winner but Manifold users correctly predict the winner of more states? Or if Bovada odds have a lower Brier score? And which bookmaker on Oddschecker?

@MickBransfield I’ll use my best judgment.