@CertaintyOfVictory The results of the election was officially called by the Associated Press (which provides voting counts to thousands of news organizations including Fox News) and other media outlets between 4:00-5:00 AM ET on Wednesday morning.

I couldn't find anything. Does someone has a strong case to resolve this not No?

I would suggest “TOO BIG TO RIG” alludes to election fraud.

I crawled the November CNN transcripts and couldn't find this. The closest thing I found was Gary Tuchman saying "this election being too close to call". If nobody else can find a transcript or clip, I'm guessing this is No.

Apparently Fox called it at 1:46am ET (10:46pm PT) already (source), so I think that's a Yes.

This would also mean that "The result of the election will not be called on the night" will be No.

@CertaintyOfVictory In your judgment, is this a No because Harris didn't give a concession speech on election night?

@CertaintyOfVictory And for "The concession speech of the loser mentions Inflation", if Harris gives a concession speech later that mentions inflation, does it (1) N/A (no concession speech on election night), (2) No (no mention of inflation on election night), or (3) Yes (eventual mention counts)?

@jBosc I think this one's a Yes. https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1853897238361104489

"TOO BIG TO RIG", and the linked website (archive) says, make it "harder to cheat in elections nationwide".

x.com

@yetforever Actually, I'm not sure if this is too early to count as "election night" for the purpose of this market, since @CertaintyOfVictory said it's 6pm to 2am.

Guys, I'm trying to resolve but I have serious connection problems for the last few days and it's a pain to navigate the Manifold UI.

@mattyb is it time to resolve this NO, since by my count a majority of networks haven't yet called the race?

@JWright not my market

@JWright I'd argue "is announced" just means that any one major news source needs to announce it (in the sense of "an announcement did happen"), and Fox did. Do you think I'm misinterpreting the question?

@yetforever no, I'm fine with letting your interpretation stand. I think that the market could've been more clearly worded, but that's a moot point. it's on me for assuming a higher bar for the resolution criterion than the question implies.

@jBosc I think this counts https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113432510587738535

Edit: This might not count as "election night" if we're only counting events after 6pm ET.

@yetforever as someone who didn't bet, I wanna say the answer in my heart is YES, but yeah if ends up being resolved NO it is perfectly understandable bc the resolution criteria were very clear

@jBosc

how's this at 90% if Trump winning is ~50% - 70%

@FergusArgyll seems high to me too, but not too high bc my guess is Trump would claim election fraud either way

@HarryHayfield not likely he will say this exactly

Not willing to spend the Mana to add, but I'd be interested in seeing

"Any candidate makes an appearance in a state beginning with 'New'"

@CertaintyOfVictory how does "riot" resolve versus, say, "demonstration"?

If demonstrations are reported in mainstream media outlets it resolves no, if riots are reported in mainstream media outlets it resolves yes.

I don’t know about other agencies, but AP will only declare a race too close to call if all normal ballots have been tabulated.

@HarryHayfield this really needs a more specific definition

I second that.

@HarryHayfield Please specify.

My guess is it’s whether some poll aggregate shows Harris in the lead on election day, but Trump wins the state, or vice versa.