2024 US Presidential Election Spread Betting (See description)
โž•
Plus
20
แน€5366
Dec 1
93%
North Carolina: Trump -1.1
92%
Pennsylvania: Trump -0.3
91%
Texas: Trump -6.5
90%
North Carolina: Trump -1.6
89%
Florida: Trump -5.1
87%
Georgia: Trump -1.2
53%
Arizona: Trump -1.3
50%
Nevada: Trump -0.5
43%
Georgia: Trump -1.7
40%
Arizona: Trump -2.3
13%
Minnesota: Harris -5.9
11%
Pennsylvania: Harris -0.5
10%
Nevada: Harris -0.7
9%
Michigan: Harris -0.9
4%
Wisconsin: Harris -1
3%
Michigan: Harris -1.1
3%
Wisconsin: Harris -0.7

Popular vote margin of victory (between first and second place) in each state by percentage points.

Inspired by Nate Silver's bet: /Ziddletwix/nate-silver-100k-twitter-bet-will-t .

Spread betting explained here: https://www.fantasylife.com/articles/betting/what-is-spread-betting-everything-you-need-to-know

Spreads originally taken from https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/#influential-races on 10/9/2024 at 21:00 PST

I may add multiple lines for the same state over time

If either nominee gets replaced for some reason, this market will instead use the odds for their party replacement (i.e. "Harris" is the same as "Democratic nominee")

DM or comment with any questions

Thank you for participating!

Get
แน€1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
reposted

not looking good for harris in most states

reposted

Election day @traders Results will start coming in in a few hours!

reposted

ELECTION DAY @traders

reposted

Three days until election day! Just added the latest predictions from FiveThirtyEight @traders

reposted

Exactly one week left until the election!

reposted

Manifold has Trump taking a lead in Georgia!

reposted

Harris within a point in NC right now!

reposted

Inspired by Nate Silver's 100k Florida bet

ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTerms + Mana-only Termsโ€ขPrivacyโ€ขRules