Which of the following will happen in the 2024 Presidential election? [ADD YOUR OWN ANSWERS (**see note**)]
➕
Plus
52
Ṁ7924
Jan 1
97%
The Associated Press will declare a winner by EOD (ET) on Nov. 6
97%
The Associated Press will declare a winner by EOD (ET) on Nov. 12
97%
Trump wins Wisconsin
97%
Trump wins the election (electoral college)
96%
Trump wins Pennsylvania
96%
Trump wins Georgia
96%
Trump wins the popular vote
95%
Trump wins Arizona
92%
Trump wins Michigan
90%
Trump wins Nevada
80%
A candidate files a lawsuit on Election Day
75%
A candidate receives >300 electoral college votes
66%
There will be at least 1 Faithless Elector
45%
Trump wins at least 15% of the black vote
34%
A candidate wins >51% of the popular vote
24%
A candidate receives >330 electoral college votes
23%
A candidate wins >52% of the popular vote
15%
There will be at least 5 Faithless Electors
12%
A candidate wins >53% of the popular vote
9%
The person who wins the popular vote does not win the presidency

** Note: In order to make room for popular questions, any market that does not have:

  • >8 bettors within a month for markets launched before September 1

  • >8 bettors within a week for markets launched between September 1 and October 22

  • >8 bettors within 2 days after October 22

Will be N/A'd at that time. I reserve the right to change the threshold number of bettors at any time if too many or too few markets are meeting it.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
A candidate files a lawsuit on Election Day

@CateHall Does this have to be a major candidate? What about someone like Randall Terry, the Constitution Party nominee for president (on the ballot in at least 12 states)?

Do the faithless electors have to be successful or just try to vote for someone else?

@NathanScott They have to actually cast a ballot for someone else, but it counts even if the ballot is voided or they are replaced with a new elector (I don't think they can be prevented from voting in the first place, correct me if I'm wrong).

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules