📆What will happen in 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
Basic
262
82k
2025
January starts
February starts
March starts
April starts
May starts
98.6%
new iphone releases
93%
spacex makes 100 launches in 1 year, all in 2024
92%
Manifold users rate manifold politics as a successful experiment at eoy
92%
any country starts a new invasion of another country
87%
someone gets 1M spice (points)
86%
joseph anderson releases his long awaited witcher 3 video
83%
A famous global brand undergoes a rebranding
81%
Bitcoin closes higher on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2024) than it closed on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2023) [EST] ***- $43,739.54 - closing price on Festivus 2023***
81%
Trump posts a tweet to @realdonaldtrump
80%
Israel : Hamas Ceasefire
79%
Any world leader says a racial slur
79%
Jimmy Carter dies
76%
Skate 4 Release
76%
Manifold raises more money (through grant, investment, or other means, at least $100K)
75%
Mel Brooks Lives to see 98 Years Old
74%
contrapoints releases a video after Twilight
72%
at least two instances of whales attacking boats in the ocean reported by the news
70%
A terrorist bombing is perpetrated by a Christian, Hindu or Buddhist religious extremist somewhere in the world (in the name of religious extremism)
68%
Deagle's old "2025 forecast" will turn out to be completely wrong
68%
official trailer releases for S&box (new facepunch / garry mod game)

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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bought Ṁ989 Answer #029fd9b75999 YES

@strutheo I assume we're changing this to $100 for the stock split?

bought Ṁ50 Answer #a0048c71df82 NO

@shankypanky Since you're the main NO bettor, is that what you had in mind?

no? I had in mind that "nvidia ends the year over $1000 usd"

I can't see fundamentally changing the figure and considering it the same thing. it should either resolve as stated or NA.

imo

(tbc I don't know anything about a stock split and I'm not in a position to look it up or go into this right now, but on the face it seems weird to change the whole option despite having bets)

Id na it , the stock split changed everything by 10x ( I basically had to update all my pre split markets to reflect it )

reposted

june ending soon!

at least two instances of whales attacking boats in the ocean reported by the news

A ship was sank today by orcas

reposted

may bump

reached

bought Ṁ140 Answer #f1ee89a618b7 YES

should resolve YES

bought Ṁ200 Answer #9b43f636b34c YES

They’re going to artificially bump profit number by 10x so this is almost guaranteed to happen

@JamesF doesnt feel in the spirit of when i made this :\ might NA

@JamesF I don't think they're increasing the amount of mana, just changing the exchange rate.

@JamesF Changing $ exchange rate, does that change profit rate? I doubt that. I think there will be an increase in profit per market due to increased cost of creation but I don't know by how much. There may also be a decrease in markets because of increased cost of creation?

I am not sure what will happen perhaps top profit maker does make quite a bit more than 144k last month maybe more like 1 million a month but is the top profit maker the same each month?
8 months left in this year.

@ChristopherRandles On the discord they said that on the leaderboard they were going to increase to profit because they devalued mana

bought Ṁ10 Answer #9b43f636b34c NO

@JamesF I think this is the same mechanism, I am talking about. Increased claim creation cost means greater profit can be made on each question. How do you think they are going to increase profit other than through this mechanism?

spacex makes 100 launches in 1 year, all in 2024
bought Ṁ20 spacex makes 100 lau... YES

Falcon 9 launch 217 to 324 is over 100 in 1 year. (You didn't specify the 1 year had to be all in 2024 ;)

@ChristopherRandles you know what i mean wise guy

sold Ṁ16 new iphone releases YES

Q2 bump!

reached

reached

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