☃️What will happen in December 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]

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Ṁ18k

Jan 1

99%

Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month

98.7%

Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%

98%

Penn State football advances to round of eight

94%

Yoon Suk Yeol will stay president of South-Korea

89%

Someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump receives an electoral vote

84%

2 or more inches of snow fall in nyc

80%

Ayatollah Khamenei will be alive the whole month

46%

at least 1 inch of snow on the ground already on christmas day in NYC

25%

web3isgoinggreat makes at least 20 posts this month

19%

>= 20% of Manifold respondents believe that weak superintelligence has been achieved in the monthly poll

18%

For the first time, weak AGI is declared to have been achieved by a majority of Manifold respondents in the monthly poll

15%

Jimmy Carter says something

another right wing media persona is revealed to have taken russia money

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran

at least 1 inch of snow freshly falls in NYC on christmas day

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on lebanon

Coup attempt in the United States

8.0+ magnitude earthquake

new charges brought against trump

another indictment against trump

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#What Will Happen Markets

#December

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Re: Yoon Suk Yeol - he is still president in name, and will likely stay that for some time:

The South Korean parliament has voted for his impeachment following a failed coup. Although he still remains president in name until the constitutional court makes a final decision, he is currently suspended and replaced by Prime Minister Han Duck-soo as interim president1. The court has 180 days to decide, meaning there is a good chance that Yoon will be out of office by then.

There is a mismatch between this market and the following one:

/SteveSokolowski/will-a-majority-of-manifold-respond

sold Ṁ39 NO

2" of snowfall in NYC starting to look likely https://bsky.app/profile/nymetrowx.bsky.social/post/3ldtpxtp3os2z

bought Ṁ595 NO

@strutheo there were no faithless electors

@strutheo https://www.yahoo.com/news/two-dead-tesla-crash-fire-170615843.html

bought Ṁ673 YES

@strutheo
today Open 19,255.43 High 19,436.92
52-wk high 19,436.92
Previously
Category All-Time Highs Closing 19,298.76 Monday, November 11, 2024
Intraday 19,366.07 Monday, November 11, 2024
so hit intraday record

@strutheo closed 20173 Dec 16.
Can this resolve please?

bought Ṁ50 NO

To clarify here for bettors, "for the first time weak AGI is achieved" means that the majority threshold has to occur in December 2024, by the plain reading of the text.

There is a possibility that the standing results of the November 2024 poll will hold, and a majority will declare weak AGI achieved in November, resolving this question NO.

sold Ṁ22 YES

@AlexanderMiller wait, doesn't the electoral college vote happen in January, and the election was back in November?

bought Ṁ100 YES

@AlexanderMiller lol

lol wow

bought Ṁ40 NO

A quick Google suggests he doesn't have his own social media, just shared Ant & Dec social media. How to resolve if e.g. the @AntAndDec Twitter account tweets on one of these topics?

@MugaSofer I'll count that then haha

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