Given current information, the probability of Russia being removed from the UN Security Council in the next 5 years seems highly unlikely [1][3]. This judgment is based on a few key observations. First, there are several significant legal obstacles that make it nearly impossible to remove Russia from the Security Council [1][3][4]. These include the need for a majority vote from the General Assembly, which would also need to include all five permanent members of the Security Council, one of which is Russia [1][8]. Adding to this difficulty is the lack of a clear legal basis for such a removal [4][5]. Second, there is not enough support from other UN member states for the removal of Russia [3][7][8][9]. Factors contributing to this lack of support include fears from other countries that such a move could set a dangerous precedent, hampering their own positions in the Security Council and the UN system [9]. In summary, while the possibility exists, the current international legal environment and the lack of political support make it significantly unlikely that Russia will be removed from the UN Security Council within the next 5 years. Therefore, the probability is estimated to be lower than 10%.

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Sources

Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council in the next 5 years?
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What legal issues would arise if Russia was to be removed from the UN Security Council?
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How did Russia retain its permanent seat from the dissolved USSR in the UN Security Council?
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What are the primary reasons for the lack of support for removing Russia from the UN Security Council?
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