By the start of 2026, will a country named Russia be a member of the UN?
Plus
22
Ṁ12322025
91%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolving negatively if Russia is dissolved, united with any other country under any other name, renamed, or not a member of the UN.
I will use the English names of member states of the UN for resolution. If, by then, the United Nations no longer exist, I will resolve negatively.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@Yev Good question. Because now the names Russia and Russian Federation are used interchangeably (and indeed that is the first article of the Russian constitution), and I created this market because I wanted to ask if Russia will still exist as a country, I think yes. If there will be a Russian Federation, a Russian Republic or whatever, I will resolve YES.
Related questions
Related questions
At any point before start of 2050, will a country named Chechnya (or similar) be a member of the UN?
40% chance
At any point before the start of 2050, will a country named Siberia (or something similar) be a member of the UN?
15% chance
When will a new state join United Nations?
Will Russia rejoin G7/G8 before EOY 2050?
46% chance
Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
51% chance
Which country will be the next to become an official member state of the United Nations?
At any point before start of 2050, will a country named Yakutia or Sakha (or something similar) be a member of the UN?
16% chance
[Metaculus] Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
35% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be the leader of Russia at the end of 2026?
73% chance
Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?
49% chance