Should I already resolve the attempt at Trump and re-add the question for another possible attempt, or should I keep it like this and resolve after the election results?

@Lucac8a8 I think you should wait to hear more details from the USSS and FBI, and then resolve YES if they say it was an assassination attempt. Right now it is just an "apparent" assassination attempt.

Should we consider replacing Biden with the new democratic renomee?

It was already widely believed that Biden would drop out when this market was created. Presumably people made their trades with that knowledge in mind.

I support this

I would not support this at all. The dynamics of this market are very different between sitting president and presidential candidate. And there’s nothing indicating it’s about some candidate.

(Plus, the market was created after it was clear that Biden might not be the nominee!)

(This isn’t like, a high stakes mana decision, I have no idea if I think Kamala has higher or lower odds of being assassinated, actually probably very similar. But it seems like an obviously different market to me)

The market has always been pretty specifically about Biden and Trump. Biden dropping out changes his odds but that doesn't mean he should switch out for someone else. I'm someone who would likely benefit from a change due to my shares but I'm against it on principle.

Fair enough. Instead of replacing Biden, should we consider adding the new democratic presidential nominee and having 6 Options in total? 2 for Biden, 2 for Trump, 2 for the new nominee

If someone goes for a Biden, I mean, who wants to assassinate a lame duck?

I would say that it looks possible that the current hit was self-directed and self-staged:
+ done by a fellow who is young, loner, easily manipulable
+ known to be bad shot (not to create real danger)
+ is spotted on the roof - no one reacts

+ although hundreds of cameras - no recording of the hit - just blood after laying down for a while
+ qui bono: helps the campaign, creates martyr image for some, decreases likelihood of real hit (as security is boosted up)

looking how sinister and high-stakes the campaign is nothing seems out of the range of possibility at that point. There are also range of foreign actors who would like to see GOP/T white house - Russia, Saudi Arabia and Israel for example ...

Can y’all like go away? 2 people are dead, multiple more injured, trump was a millimeter from death and you think it’s fake? Are you trolling? You say he’s a bad shot yet trump trusted this guy to hit his ear with a bullet?

The only conspiracy semi plausible is that secret service was completely/intentionally incompetent because they don’t like trump. Your theory is garbage.

What counts as an unsuccessful attempt? My understanding is the POTUS is typical the subject of many unsuccessful attempts that are not disclosed to the public.

I'd argue an unsuccesful attempt is when the weapon of choice is actually used, for example a rifle being shot like in the trump example. Someone simply getting caught with a weapon in the proximity isnt a reliable enough metric, because, as you said, it's hard to get actual conformation. Alternative option, which could be discussed, would be if the shooter itself is neutralized because he was already aiming. Scenario's with explosives or a knife seem very very unrealistic, so probably not worth considering

Jim makes a good point, too. If we hear about it, it's probably pretty significant.

The Trump attempt was unsuccessful. Also although it may seem unrealistic, explosives were found in the shooters vehicle and there were enough to blow the small town he was promoting in off the map! Also, many global leaders have faced attempts with hand thrown explosives and explosive projectiles! See current leader of Russia for video of failed explosive attempt.

Do you have a source on the amount of explosives in the shooters vehicle? I did know he had explosives inside, that it would be enough to explode the whole town, I dont know & doubt

These odds look crazy high

The question was created only like 1h ago, because the questions start out at 50% it's to be expected that they go down slowly over time