By 2025, GPTs are proven to be able to infer scientific principles from linguistic data. | Manifold

By 2025, GPTs are proven to be able to infer scientific principles from linguistic data.

Basic

7

Ṁ109

Jan 1

37%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

A later version of this questions: https://manifold.markets/Mag/by-2024-gpts-are-proven-to-be-able

In the spirit of what Gary Marcus says here:

https://twitter.com/GaryMarcus/status/1640029885040132096?s=20

Get

1,000

and

1.00

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Thoughts?

https://x.com/timothyduignan/status/1797960944175427629?s=46&t=7MQWoR0BbBi0qMI9dbdAwQ

Does this count? https://x.com/GillVerd/status/1764901418664882327?s=20

Probably should've checked this before betting, but the question says "by 2025" while the market resolves on January 1, 2024. Which of these better fits your intentions?

@Finn Apologies, should have been 2025 — I already have a version that ends 2024 https://manifold.markets/Mag/by-2024-gpts-are-proven-to-be-able

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Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Will GPT, or AI systems that have GPT as their main component, become as reliably factual as Wikipedia, before 2026?

Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)

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Will there be a language model called GPT-5, released by OpenAI, this decade?

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Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-4 this decade?

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