By 2025, GPTs are proven to be able to infer scientific principles from linguistic data.
10
150Ṁ434
Jan 1
8%
chance
AI
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will GPT, or AI systems that have GPT as their main component, become as reliably factual as Wikipedia, before 2026?
49% chance
By 2028, will there be a language model of less than 10B parameters that is superior to GPT-4?
84% chance
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?
31% chance
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?
11% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
45% chance
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-3 before 2030?
13% chance
Will there be a language model called GPT-5, released by OpenAI, this decade?
95% chance
Will a model as great as GPT-5 be available to the public in 2025?
84% chance
Will there be evidence in 2025 that in April 2023, OpenAI had a GPT-4.5 or higher model?
16% chance
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
39% chance
Sort by:

Thoughts?

https://x.com/timothyduignan/status/1797960944175427629?s=46&t=7MQWoR0BbBi0qMI9dbdAwQ

Does this count? https://x.com/GillVerd/status/1764901418664882327?s=20

Probably should've checked this before betting, but the question says "by 2025" while the market resolves on January 1, 2024. Which of these better fits your intentions?

@Finn Apologies, should have been 2025 — I already have a version that ends 2024 https://manifold.markets/Mag/by-2024-gpts-are-proven-to-be-able

People are also trading

Will GPT, or AI systems that have GPT as their main component, become as reliably factual as Wikipedia, before 2026?
49% chance
By 2028, will there be a language model of less than 10B parameters that is superior to GPT-4?
84% chance
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?
31% chance
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?
11% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
45% chance
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-3 before 2030?
13% chance
Will there be a language model called GPT-5, released by OpenAI, this decade?
95% chance
Will a model as great as GPT-5 be available to the public in 2025?
84% chance
Will there be evidence in 2025 that in April 2023, OpenAI had a GPT-4.5 or higher model?
16% chance
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
39% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules