I tried to build a model for Whitmer based on polling data and her performance relative to presidential elections. Base estimate is around ~87% chance of Whitmer winning. Then just depends on how much of a hit you estimate the swap would cause. Lots of assumptions though.

https://dactile.net/p/whitmer-elect-forecast-prob/article.html

Not active enough in US politics to evaluate this but I really appreciate you publicly explaining your model in this way

cool work!

my biggest problem with this model is I think it assumes that voter elasticity and willingness to split tickets is consistent across different elections- in reality, voters are much more willing to split tickets in non presidential years and there are much more persuadable voters. There are also much more persuadable voters in governor's elections than in other elections- presidential races have by far the fewest persuadable voters.

Sanity check: Phil Scott (R) won Vermont by 47 points in 2022, when Biden won it by 36 points in 2020. I think the model would probably predict that he'd win like >45 states, which I would quite confidently bet the under on!

Andy Beshear is, IMHO, clearly the favorite, though his name is surprisingly not coming up much outside of Kentucky. He should probably be on this list though.

How can he be the favourite if his name does not come up much outside of kentucky? Isn't legitimacy, having a lot of name recognition a reaaaly large part of winning?

Add Hillary Clinton?

This is a cool market, however it’s confounded by the fact that for someone to become the Dem nominee, they would have to gain a lot of popularity. So the question this is asking is “if some other democrat gathers enough popularity to displace Biden, will they win the election?” Which doesn’t really answer WHO is able to achieve that or whether it’s a good decision to replace Biden.

I made a variant:

https://manifold.markets/Ansel/who-would-win-the-us-presidential-e-j8gx5ptrlf?r=QW5zZWw

'Any democrat' being higher than any particular democrat shows how nonfunctinal this market is

@Tumbles A good observation! Actually, I was just looking at some polling showing the other dems all doing worse against Trump than Biden. Let's see what happens when I buy them down.

@ManifoldPolitics ok wait but actually

I think it's just too difficult to distinguish between Newsom, Whitmer, and so on at this point. There's not enough polling, and their name ID isn't high enough when they are polled.

It actually might be best to simply focus on the overall question of "anyone but Biden".

@ManifoldPolitics Generic democrat (anyone but biden) is also not very useful. Generic democrat does not have any opinions, appearance, history, charisma, trustworthiness or anything that people actually vote on. For example Biden is very generic democrat, except he is very old. All other candidates will have their problems, but if you just ask about generic democrat, then you throw away most of these potential problems and ask about something amorphous and loosely defined. People will then usually project someone they want to vote for and they will say yes more often, but once you put in specific person it goes away.

Democrats do not have one obvious pick that has it all, and I think if they had Biden would step down long time ago.

These polls seem unlikely to take into account campaigning effects, yes?

Can we get a version of this where you can add your own answers? I'd love to add Raphael Warnock (and maybe others).

@EricNeyman Sure! Though note you can trade on Warnock in the linked version here:

But for a conditional version with free response, here's a new one: