Assuming no change in the week until market close, how will this resolve? (Or will this market be extended until the Israeli-Palestinian conflict concludes?)

@UnspecifiedPerson extended

I'm going to comment that Israel is extremely undervalued, because in the event of a two-state solution, large settlements close to Israel, like Modiin Ilit and Beitar Illit, will be annexed. The only way that this can resolve to Palestine and not Israel is if somehow at least part of the West Bank becomes a Palestinian state but there are no land swaps or anything.

@manifoldaccount Wait if Israel annexes 5% of the West Bank, does this resolve as Israel 5% only?

@manifoldaccount If 5% becomes Israel and 45% Jordan and 50% Palestine then those ratios. That's my intention anyway.

@MartinRandall What happens if the West Bank is split up into a few countries? Say there is a country in the north (state of Nablus and Jenin), country in the south (state of Hebron), and Israel annexes the middle and the Jordan Valley? Israel 30%, other 70%?

@manifoldaccount Yes, should be. There's potentially grey area if Hebron is successor state to (current, non-sovereign) Palestine.

I don't think that is an especially likely result.

@MartinRandall Yeah, something like the Allon Plan would be more likely. I think the most likely outcomes for the West Bank are the Allon Plan (Israel-Jordan split) and a Clinton Parameters style two-state solution (Israel gets large blocs with most settlers, the rest becomes Palestine). Just that the conflict persists until the modern concept of states becomes meaningless is also a possibility.

@manifoldaccount That last one should count as "other" as well, I think.

@MartinRandall What happens if (most of) the West Bank becomes an independent state, like in a three-state solution?

@nathanwei Palestine or (currently) Other. It depends on if the new West Bank is a successor to the non-sovereign Palestine.

How is earth Jerusalem treated for the presupposes of this question

@TomBouley Still early in the market. I think excluded, I'm sure it'll end up accepted Israel.