This is a conjunction market, not a conditional market! Only one of the four options will be YES, while the other three are NO.

Resolves based on which political party the winner of the 2024 US presidential election belongs to and whether the USA and either Iran, China, or Russia go to war before 2029. (If a third party wins I'll eat my hat and resolve N/A.)

War between the USA and Iran/China/Russia would involve any of the following:

• A declaration of war against the other country by the US congress.

• The USA performs at least 14 airstrikes on targets belonging to the country during a continuous 10-day period, with no more than 24 hours between strikes.

• Any nuclear weapon is used by one country against the other, including nationalist terrorists.

• Troops are deployed on land claimed by the enemy in a military action such that at least 500 people (including civilians) die in the fighting on one side.

• At least 6 warships are destroyed by the other country within 30 days, with at least 1000 casualties (not necessary deaths) on one side of the conflict.

• If I create a Manifold poll about whether the countries are at war, and at least 40 people respond, at least 75% say "Yes". (I won't do this unless I feel like the nature of war has become weird (e.g. "lethal cyberwar").)

Example scenario that resolves Democrat+War (selected for being weird): In September 2024 Biden has a nasty fall and is forced to withdraw from the election, but somehow Harris+Newsom wins. In 2026 China invades Taiwan. The USA deploys troops to the island ("ground invasion of land claimed by the other country") which manage to blow up a single Chinese aircraft carrier (killing 500+) before withdrawing. No formal declaration of war is made.