For "Yes" resolution:
Verifiable evidence of military strikes by Russia on NATO member countries hosting transit bases for Ukrainian military equipment or aircraft (like F16). Confirmation from credible sources such as government officials, international organizations, or reputable media outlets. Consensus among geopolitical analysts and experts acknowledging the occurrence of such strikes.
For "No" resolution:
Absence of verifiable evidence of military strikes by Russia on NATO member countries hosting Ukrainian transit bases.
Official statements or declarations from relevant governments denying any such attacks.
Reports from independent monitors or international observers confirming the absence of such strikes.
For "N/A" resolution:
In the absence of verifiable information (or false flag attacks), the bet would be resolved as "N/A" due to insufficient evidence to determine either "Yes" or "No" outcomes.
1,000
3.00Bet on Russo-Ukraine war here:
Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by:
EOY 2025?
EOY 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will negotiations between Ukraine and Russia start this year and why? (your answers)
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-negotiations-between-ukraine-a
If any side secures a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes?
pro-Russian ceasefire?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/if-russia-secures-a-substantively-p?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
pro-Ukraine ceasefire?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/how-could-ukraine-win-a-war-against?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Transnistria be annexed by Russia until EOY 2025?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-transnistria-be-annexed-by-rus?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will one or more Ukrainian private military companies participate in battalion-sized (500+ soldier) combat operations?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-one-or-more-ukrainian-private?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Ukraine destroy at least 5 strategic bombers this year, preventing their further use for shelling Ukraine?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukraine-destroy-at-least-5-str?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Ukrainian frontline collapse until EOY 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-frontline-collapse-u?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Ukrainian authorities lift the travel ban for male citizens aged 18-60 by January 1, 2026?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-authorities-lift-the?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will commercial flights resume from any Ukrainian airport by January 1, 2026?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-commercial-flights-resume-from?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Kharkiv or Zaporizhia or Kherson fall before EOY 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-kharkiv-or-zaporizhia-or-khers
Will Russia implement a major nationwide forced military mobilization for the Ukraine war before EOY 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-russia-implement-a-major-natio
Will there be mass protests in Ukraine analogous to the Maidan protests by December 31, 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-there-be-mass-protests-in-ukra
When will martial law be lifted in at least 3/4 of Ukraine?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/when-will-martial-law-be-lifted-in
When will conscripted Ukrainians be able to demobilize?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/when-will-conscripted-ukrainians-be