[last update: 9/26]

Pedro and I are organizing MIT Forecasting Group. We are running our second meeting 9/26. Meetings will mostly consist of practicing our own forecasting skills and learning from others forecasts (e.g. prediction markets, FRI, Samovetsky.)

We have not discussed doing projects with the group. One idea I have been suggested is surveying MIT professors' forecasts for Gemeni/GPT-5/Llama 3 and then evaluating them after the models are released and benchmarked. I am open to more project ideas!

This market will resolve YES if we make substantial progress on a project and post about it on EA Forum/LW ('substantial' is judged by me.)

The project must have a member of MIT Forecasting Group who isn't me or Pedro as a major contributor, i.e. the work done by at least one other MIT Forecasting member who isn't me or Pedro >= 1/4 of total work (measured by time spent working.) Also, the project cannot just be planning/running our regular meetings of the club.