As of May 2024 polling by GrowSF, this is a tight race between Mayor Breed, Mark Farrell, Aaron Peskin and Daniel Lurie, with Ahsha Safai also as a viable candidate.
https://growsf.org/pulse/growsf-pulse-may-2024-mayor/
The election will take place in November 2024. Mark Farrell is seen as the most conservative / pro business candidate, while Aaron Peskin is seen as representing the more liberal side of the current Board of Supervisors. Mayor Breed is seem as somewhat of a moderate, and the incumbent.
The other candidates are less well known by the public.
1,000
3.00Lurie will probably win but it's not been officially called yet
https://abc7news.com/post/sf-mayoral-race-daniel-lurie-leads-london-breed-after-final-round-ranked-choice-voting/15517468/
Current Polymarket odds. Lurie has surged a lot and been trading over 50% for some time now.
https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-san-francisco-mayoral-election/will-london-breed-win-the-san-francisco-mayoral-election?tid=1729807281252
Tricky election to forecast with rank preference voting. Another reason why most jurisdictions do top two then runoff.
Eggheads love ranked elections but very confusing for the average non-mathematician. I say that as an egghead myself
@Moscow25 Respectfully, the ability to forecast an election should not be an important consideration in deciding which format to use.
If you're interested in local elections further down the peninsula:
https://manifold.markets/DavidFWatson/which-candidates-will-win-seats-on
@Moscow25 hedging, or <1% way too low, or both.
Bigger news is Breed is down to 14% on Polymarket, which seems a bit low.
@MikeLinksvayer yes that market has been bumpy
That do they know?
I think she has been trading too high at 30-40% but 14% seems low!
Polymarket has this as a very close three part race. Though with Lurie leading now, as perhaps the "compromise" candidate?
Recent polling for Lurie gives him a lot more value than this market, albeit most of the recent polling is paid for by his campaign.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_San_Francisco_mayoral_election#Polling
@Moscow25 Polymarket has him clear third also...
https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-san-francisco-mayoral-election/will-mark-farrell-win-the-san-francisco-mayoral-election?tid=1726122281370
Polymarket has Farrell and Breed in a dead heat at 47% each and everyone else far behind.
https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-san-francisco-mayoral-election/will-mark-farrell-win-the-san-francisco-mayoral-election?tid=1726122281370
