On Sunday May 19th Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi's helicopter crashed.
Israel is reporting his death (not confirmed) and denied responsibility.
https://deepnewz.com/israel/iranian-president-raisi-reportedly-dies-helicopter-crash
Market will resolve "Yes" if Israel claims responsibility or there is are many credible media reports of Israeli or allied attack on the helicopter by July 1st 2024.
Likely "No" resolutions would be an accident, mechanical failure, or an attack by Iranian or non-US non-Israeli adversaries to the president.
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Really hard to prove that something didn't happen, so I like that you've set a time frame. However, aviation crash investigations often take over a year, let alone the work of intelligence agencies, so the market title is a bit misleading. It's a high possibility that if Israel are responsible, it will take longer to prove than 6-7 weeks. I'd rewrite the market title to focus on it being "shown within short time."
@GazDownright I wrote "by July 1st" but yeah headline could be more specific -- always a balance between simplicity and details
most good markets have short titles, fwiw
@GazDownright yeah there has been zero claim or even rumour of Israeli involvement -- hence I resolved it
maybe comes out differently years from now...