Trump was convicted in New York on 34 counts.
Market will resolve Yes if:
Trump is pardoned or the conviction is overturned, vacated, or otherwise dismissed
if Trump wins an appeal to overturn, stay, or postpone his conviction in New York State or the Supreme Court
The market will resolve NO if:
nothing happens
the conviction is not overturned or vacated
Market will resolve at election day 2024.
In breaking news, New York judge postpones sentencing until late November -- way after the election.
https://deepnewz.com/us-elections/judge-delays-trump-s-sentencing-hush-money-case-until-november-26-after-election
Some may disagree but I think this meets the qualification of a clear legal victory for team Trump.
The market was trading at 30% and I did not trade it before resolving. Hence it jumped from 30 to 100%
If you disagree with the resolution, I would be interested to hear it -- especially for future markets.
@Moscow25 not that it matters but you can see that while I was the biggest winner in this market... all trades were made weeks ago, and I actually sold part of my "YES" position earlier this month
Trump sentencing is delayed until September 18th, as judge reviews the immunity decision.
https://deepnewz.com/new-york/trump-sentencing-hush-money-case-delayed-until-september-18
Trump to pre-meet for his probation hearing today -- virtually from Florida.
https://deepnewz.com/economics/trump-to-undergo-virtual-probation-interview-monday-after-hush-money-felony
Seems on the surface this is keeping up the appearances of proceeding normally...
Trump calling on Supreme Court to look at his conviction.
https://deepnewz.com/crime/trump-calls-on-supreme-court-to-intervene-before-july-11-sentencing-ahead
Them hearing the case and granting a stay would certainly count!
@Pjfkh not sure what you mean
we are talking about the criminal case -- any explicit victory for Trump in court counts, but not related to money... this is not the civil case
@Moscow25 I meant that trump is going to appeal the NY case, and that could take a very long time (even years), if he is granted an appeal bond, then even if he is sentenced to prison time, he wouldn’t have to serve any while the appeal is underway. That could be interpreted as a significant legal victory (the appeal bond), even if it is highly likely.
Other legal victories could include a sentence of just probation or some other non-custodial sentence on July 11th. Etc.
So I was wondering if this would resolve on the granting of an appeal bond, or a symbolic sentence that doesn’t involve prison time.
@Pjfkh I understand. Yes if Trump is granted the appeal bond in the case you describe, before the election, that will count!
Thanks for the details.
However if he is sentenced to nothing, or probation, or they delay his sentencing... that counts as "nothing." He would have to appeal somewhere and win.
At the same time if the judge somehow vacates the conviction that is a win also....
Has to be a line draws somewhere.
I tend to agree it will be interesting to see what happens at sentencing.