Recently I started a new Instagram account where I share my AI generated images. Will I reach 100 followers before the end of the year?
@MichaelCox Technically, they reached >100 followers before the end of the year, but later, these followers were not considered real
He's at 93 if anyone wants to turn this into minnowbait! Just follow it and share it with someone you collude with. Historically I've seen markets like this get +10 follows or more in the late hours.
You reached >100 followers. I think this market should resolve to Yes or N/A. Anything else would be incredibly unfair. I read the description, opened the Instagram profile, saw >100 followers, and thought the only reason the market is not at 99.9% was liquidity, so I followed and bet it up
@MrLuke255 I’m biased given my sizable NO stake, but you’ve still got a good number of small accounts who seem to fit a bot pattern (eg the grouping of accounts that all have LEGO profile pics, no names just usernames, are private, and almost no followers). If you’re not confident you can catch all the bots I’d recommend an N/A resolution, or perhaps something to the effect of taking the pre-bot follower count, and summing to it any accounts that join post-bot over the final days.
Ok, it’s not. 87
@strutheo I don't mind an NA that much, but it's worth reiterating in this context that people really shouldn't bet markets up to 97% when fishy things are going on, and if they do, they shouldn't expect an NA to save them, this is bad incentives.
@chrisjbillington I opened the Instagram profile, saw >100 followers, then bet on Yes up to 97%
I’m going to remove all accounts which look obviously fake from followers. I didn’t want to gain fake followers and I don’t believe it is in the spirit of the market to count them. In best scenario, Manifold would have an option to pause the market or revert it to the previous state when something more or less probable happens which was controversial. Unfortunately it’s not the case. I will leave the resolution to the moderation team
In couple of hours all fake followers should be removed by me.
I suppose they might be a “gift” from the account on which I bought a shoutout, they wanted to show me that it’s “working”.
I’m really sorry it played out like this.
@Domer Kinda sucks if this ruins anything bc I was going to really put in the effort to get you over these benchmarks.
@MrLuke255 do you allow yourself to outright buy bot follows? Or limiting yourself to ads for real ppl to follow you
@TheBayesian FWIW botting social media accounts is against Manifold's community guidelines and may be punishable here. This rule wasn't written with the creator botting their own accounts in mind, but I suspect admins would still frown on it.
@TheBayesian whether bots were outright bought or just not discouraged, there sure are a lot of 'totallyrealname00765326840' accounts with 0-2 posts, close to zero followers and following a bunch of spammy accounts, on the followers list.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯