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If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
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87
Ṁ4.5k2030
70%
chance
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1W
1M
ALL
Resolves Yes if US directly uses it's military force against China
Resolves No otherwise
Resolves N/A if by close date China has not invaded Taiwan
"Invasion" is any attempt to establish a ground presence on the island of Taiwan with military force.
If China attempted a landing on Taiwan but was entirely thwarted by a US attack this would still resolve Yes
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@PipFoweraker N/A if China does not invade Taiwan by close date. I’ll update the description
@DuSusisu Biden said explicitly several times that they would, despite his advisors trying to stop him from saying this.
He would do it.
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