Will there be a publicly detrans elected official in the US before 2029?
Plus
11
Ṁ2492029
65%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves as YES if there is an elected official in the US who is publicly detransitioning or publicly has detransitioned before 2029. This includes both those in and out of office. If you already know of an elected official who is openly detrans and provide evidence of their existence from local or national news, then this market resolves as YES. Personal communications (say on social networks) confirming the person as detrans do not qualify. If there is not a detrans elected official before 2029, then this market resolves as NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a publicly detrans elected official at the state or federal level in the US before 2029?
30% chance
Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030?
56% chance
Will there be a US president who identifies as female by end of 2035?
62% chance
Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by the end of 2030?
20% chance
Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?
20% chance
In Texas, will there be a high-profile case of a transgender child being separated from their parents before 2025?
24% chance
Will the US have a female or gender non-conforming president by 2033?
52% chance
Will any country in the world have a transgender head of state by 2050?
64% chance
Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?
60% chance
Will there be a transgender president before a transgender speaker of the house.
40% chance