Background The Gaza Strip is currently a territory under the control of Hamas, with Israel conducting military operations in response to the October 7, 2023 attacks. While the U.S. has been involved diplomatically and provides military support to Israel, there are no current plans or indications of direct U.S. military intervention to capture Gaza.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve as YES if the United States military takes direct control of the Gaza Strip through military means. This would require:

• Official U.S. military forces (not contractors or advisors) physically occupying and administering the territory

• Official acknowledgment from the U.S. government of having taken control

• The control extending to the majority of the Gaza Strip's territory

The market will resolve as NO if:

• The U.S. does not capture Gaza by the resolution date

• The U.S. only provides support to other forces controlling Gaza

• The U.S. only participates in peacekeeping operations under UN or other international authority

• The U.S. only provides humanitarian or reconstruction assistance

Considerations

• The U.S. has not directly occupied territory in the Middle East since the Iraq War

• Any U.S. capture of Gaza would represent a major shift in U.S. foreign policy

• International law and regional political dynamics make such an action highly complex

• Previous U.S. involvement in the region has focused on diplomatic solutions and military aid rather than direct territorial control

• Update 2025-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Timing Requirement:

  • The U.S. capture of the Gaza Strip must occur in 2025 (i.e. before the market’s closing date).