What will be true of the UK.gov October Budget?
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Oct 30
95%
Inheritance Tax Increase
94%
Capital Gains Tax Increase
77%
Any change to Council Tax
74%
Scrapping pension contribution relief for higher tax payers
72%
Reduction in Capital Gains tax-free allowance
67%
Fuel Duty Increase
66%
Reduction in the number of years allowed when giving away assets before someone dies before inheritance tax kicks in
66%
Introduction of VAT in more exempt categories (e.g. financial services)
62%
Inheritance Tax tax-free threshold decreased
60%
Corporation Tax Increase
55%
Reduction in pension tax-free lump sum
51%
Reduction in ISA contribution limits and/or a cap on total ISA contributions
40%
Business rates change
35%
Introduction of inheritance tax on currently-exempt categories (eg. agricultural land and family businesses)
30%
Introduction of employers NI contributions on employer pension contributions
17%
Tax on 'wealth'
10%
Removal of single-person Council Tax discount.
9%
National Insurance Increase
6%
VAT Increase
6%
Income / PAYE Tax increase

The next UK budget is due to be held on October 30th. Which of the above statements will be true about what is unveiled on budget day?

When resolving the "$tax increase" options:

  • I will resolve YES if:

    • The % rate of tax goes up (i.e. paying more)

    • The threshold at which it is paid goes down (i.e. more people pay / pay more)

  • If the tax is changed such that there are winners and losers (e.g. an increase in % rate but also an increase in threshold) then I will resolve 50%.

  • I will resolve NO if:

    • The % rate of tax goes down

    • The threshold at which it is paid goes up

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Scrapping pension contribution relief for higher tax payers

My father, who wrote this answer, assigns it a probability of 80%.

oh that would make so much sense and a very sneaky "well TECHNICALLY it's not raising the income tax"

Does this mean “higher rate tax payers only get the basic 20% tax relief” or “higher rate tax payers don’t get any tax relief on income they’re paying higher rate on” (or both)?

I don't know, sorry

@RoddyMacSween Just to get ahead of any potential arguments, I will resolve this answer YES in the event of any of the following changes:

  • higher rate tax payers can only get the basic 20% tax relief

  • higher rate tax payers do not get any tax relief

IMO these outcomes both represent scrapping of tax relief for higher tax payers.

I will resolve NO if they can still claim tax relief but to a lower amount, as long as that amount is above the basic 20%. IMO this would be a reduction but not a "scrapping". Feel free to add a separate option for reduction if you want to see it forecasted separately.

Sounds good to me!

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