In twenty years, the best evidence will suggest that sperm counts are substantially declining across most of the world
➕
Plus
27
Ṁ1259
2043
65%
chance

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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bought Ṁ25 of NO here and Ṁ25 of YES on https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-twenty-years-will-the-best-evide since this seems either equivalent or very slightly weaker.

Not a pure arbitrage, since there's still risk that Noah and Scott will dissagree.

predicts NO

@JeffKaufman unless Scott or I lose our mind completely, unlikely.

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