In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
Plus
41
Ṁ11022043
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Related to ACX post "Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know". Although this says "in at least one country", this is just about whether one country is able to detect it, and I will only mark it as true if it seems to be related to a global phenomenon; ie if there is a chemical spill in one country that causes its fertility to decrease, this will not count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
I'm buying YES as a hedge/arbitrage to the https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-twenty-years-will-the-best-evide market, not because I think this is likely.
Related questions
Related questions
In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?
78% chance
In twenty years, the best evidence will suggest that sperm counts are substantially declining across most of the world
64% chance
Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?
When will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level?
Will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level before 2028?
44% chance
Will Canadas overall fertility rate increase in the next decade?
39% chance
Will the US fertility rate surpass 2.1 for any year in the next decade?
20% chance
Will Canadas overall fertility rate increase in the next decade?
40% chance
Will any EU country achieve fertility rate >=2.0 by the end of 2032?
21% chance
Will Japanese Total Fertility be below 1.2 by 2030?
62% chance