Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor? | Manifold

Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?

Plus

48

Ṁ1354

2043

55%

Plastics

5%

Pesticides

0.3%

Sunlight and circadian rhythm

37%

Diet and obesity

2%

Porn

Related ACX post Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know. I will go off of some combination of how sure scientists are that it matters, vs. how big scientists think the effect is.

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Will this be based on what the science actually suggests or based on what prominent scientists are willing to say in public? Think of the difference between those two on anything remotely touching race in the last few years, for example.

@connorwilliams97 That's a fair observation. We'll probably focus on the publicly expressed opinions, as we can't truly know what's going on in people's minds

Sedentary lifestyle?
Frequent masturbation (regardless of porn or not)?

I can't believe they're still allowed to put Pthalates in OTC pills

If it turns out that counts have been lower because of worse compliance with instructions to refrain from ejaculation in advance of sampling, would that be decline or not?

@JeffKaufman I bought some based on guessing yes, but less than I would have if I was sure it was a yes.

Should there be a "something else" option?

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In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

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Will the causal factors for the global secular decline in men's testosterone levels become clear by 2028?

In twenty years, the best evidence will suggest that sperm counts are substantially declining across most of the world

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Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

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