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How will the three "rust belt" swing states go in 2024?
Basic
23
Ṁ1.4kNov 26
1D
1W
1M
ALL
40%
MI - Dem; PA - Dem; WI - Dem
8%
MI - Dem; PA - Dem; WI - Rep
2%
MI - Dem; PA - Rep; WI - Dem
3%
MI - Dem; PA - Rep; WI - Rep
2%
MI - Rep; PA - Dem; WI - Dem
18%
MI - Rep; PA - Dem; WI - Rep
2%
MI - Rep; PA - Rep; WI - Dem
24%
MI - Rep; PA - Rep; WI - Rep
0.4%
Resolves based on which party's nominee wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2024. Dem = Democratic, Rep = Republican
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MI - Dem; PA - Dem; WI - Rep
Manifold currently gives Democrats about a 60% chance of winning Wisconsin, so this one should be lower than the first option by at least a factor of 3/2 (and in reality more than that, since the conditional probability of a Democrat winning WI given that they also win MI and PA should be higher than the unconditional probability).
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