https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833:

> The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.

Will the second part of this tweet happen conditional on the first part of this tweet happening?

This market resolves to n/a if there aren't successful Starship launches (including successful landing) in 2 years.

This resolves to n/a in the event of massive acceleration due to AI (>30% GDP growth due to AI in the US would count). I don't expect this to effect this market.