Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens?
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7
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30%
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https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833:
> The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.
Will the first part of this tweet happen?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Mqrius I was trying to operationalize Elon's tweet. I'd say 1 doesn't count because that wouldn't allow for testing the reliability of landing? Not sure though.
@RyanGreenblatt Personally I'd count 1 because this market is more about whether they send anything at all that window, but it's up to you!
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