In which months will Trump's odds of winning be sustained above 50%?
Standard
21
Ṁ4329Jan 1
1D
1W
1M
ALL
22%
August
30%
September
35%
October
38%
November
Resolved
YESJuly
Resolved
YESJune
Resolved
NOMay
Resolved
YESApril
Resolved
YESMarch
51% or higher, for at least three full days, in this market.
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@SemioticRivalry looks like some of these can resolve?
june/july are easy, they had long stretches (3+ days) where trump is well above 50%
march/april/may are less obvious. i'm interpreting "for at least 3 full days" to mean "3 consecutive days where his probability is always >50%". by that bar, i think they would be NO—even with the graph kinda zoomed out, every day or 2 you see it dip back to 50%, i can't find (consecutive) 3 full days where he never dips back to 50% or lower. but if you mean a lower bar (any 3 separate days, and not checking for tiny price drops from large trades), then it's possible those count.
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