Will there be age depolarization in the 2024 election?
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In the CNN exit poll in 2020, 18-44 voters went Biden +14, while 45+ voters went Trump +3. This would be 17 points of polarization. The Fox exit poll showed 20 points of polarization.
If the mean of the age polarization CNN and Fox exit polls in 2024 show a value less than 18.5, this market will resolve to yes. In the event that the exits do not provide these exact age ranges, I will try to compare other sources.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Based on the latest NYT Siena poll, Trump is leading among all except the oldest voters.
But the main reason seems to be less that younger voters shifted to Trump, and more that they shifted to RFK.
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