i.e. 24 hours after first poll closings.
This will resolve based generally on prediction markets, and whether they are >95% for one candidate. In the event of slightly different prices, I will make a judgement call. I will not bet in this market.
1,000
1.00How would you classify 2020?
Saturday November 7th was when it was called by major news networks but I think didn't cross 90% on betting market till well after.
When (if at all) between Tuesday November 3rd and Saturday November 7th, did we know?
I would argue the true probability was over 95% on November 4th 17:58 once MI and WI went to Biden while Predictit had 87%
https://blog.ap.org/behind-the-news/calling-the-2020-presidential-race-state-by-state
@traders also check out this similar market with options for specific timing of when the election can be called based on prediction markets