Will H5N1 have spread to multiple pig farms in 2024? | Manifold

Will H5N1 have spread to multiple pig farms in 2024?

Plus

34

Ṁ8148

Dec 31

1D

1W

1M

ALL

6%

Before September 1st, 2024

61%

Before December 31st, 2024

Resolved

NO

Before April 1st, 2024

Resolved

NO

Before June 1st, 2024

Will credible future reports claim that H5N1 was spreading in more than 1 pig farm, in any country, at the following dates?

Dates refer to when the virus was spreading, not when reports are published.

I will not bet in this market.

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First pig detected positive. Doesn't count as "spreading" just yet

https://www.statnews.com/2024/10/30/h5n1-bird-flu-found-in-oregon-pig-reassortment-threat-human-transmission/?utm_medium=email&_hsmi=331600440&utm_content=331600440&utm_source=hs_email

No search results on Perplexity, USDA, Twitter, Google, Google Trends, and we know it doesn't spread easily between pigs experimentally. Resolved "before April" to NO.

@traders I realize I did not specify WHEN I would resolve this, so I am settling on 4 months after the date (unless multiple people protest this)

Pigs [n=9] are highly susceptible to but do not transmit [n=6] mink-derived highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22221751.2024.2353292#d1e506

This market is still completely off, given the 4th includes the previous 3

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