Nate Silver has left 538 but he continues to maintain his Presidential election model which attempts to put a figure on how likely each of the candidates are to win the electoral college and therefore win the election.
Trump was leading Biden by a wide margin but the first model to measure him against Harris gave her the lead. This led me to ask when Trump would overtake Harris:
/SimonGrayson/when-will-trump-overtake-harris-in
Earlier today, Trump overtook Harris off the back of some strong polls in Pennsylvania.
Will Harris take the lead back in the next week (by the time this market closes in exactly a week)?
Or will Trump maintain his lead for the whole week?
Resolution notes:
The primary source of truth for this market is Nate Silver's blog. Some of his content is subscriber-only, but the results of the model can usually be found in other media outlets including Nate Silver's own Twitter feed.
This market only references Silver's model for winning the electoral collage (ie. winning the election) rather than winning the popular vote or getting ahead in the polling average
If Nate Silver stops publishing a Harris vs Trump model for any reason (including one of the candidates withdrawing) before Harris has overtaken Trump and does not bring it back online by the time this market closes, this market will resolve to NO.
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https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
What the hell were you looking at? Per today's post Harris up 49 to 45 nationally?
@DwightCasanas the description says
> This market only references Silver's model for winning the electoral collage (ie. winning the election) rather than winning the popular vote or getting ahead in the polling average
@bence right, and it says nothing about the forecast of the electoral college specifically, only somewhere in the description does it mention it
@DwightCasanas Harris was ahead in the popular vote forecast when this question was posted, so she did not overtake Trump in that time window, so the question would resolve NO either way.
@DwightCasanas Why would you assume that the forecast is talking about the popular vote or the polling average? The obvious interpretation of the question is that it's about the chances of winning the Electoral College. That's also the only interpretation on which the question even makes sense given that it's the only thin in which Harris was ever behind while this question existed.
@DwightCasanas The fact that the market probability was ≤ 1% indicates that most people understood this question was going to resolve NO. If you honestly believed it was going to resolve YES, then I'd expect you to have bet it up higher.
The market's early expectation was that the Trump lead was a blip - the chance of Harris retaking the lead within a week was estimated at over 80%.
But Trump's lead in the model has only widened and the current probabilities are shown as:
Trump 60.1%
Harris 39.7%
So well done to the early NO backers - this market resolves to NO.
How long will Trump maintain this lead for?
Latest update:
Trump 56.7%
Harris 43.0%
Whether or not you’re a subscriber, you can read Silver’s analysis of the latest changes to the forecast here:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Update for those without a subscription to Nate Silver’s blog…
As of the most recent update:
Trump 55.8%
Harris 44.0%
Eyeballing the graph, it looks like Trump has extended his lead by a little every day since he overtook Harris.
The key is that Trump has a tiny lead in each of Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia. So a small polling change in those states could swing the forecast pretty sharply one way or the other!
Thank you!.
@SimonGrayson given that she's getting docked for an expected convention bounce, which she's underperforming in, quite unlikely for any changes to happen in 2 days
Betting yes not because I expect a big movement in polls but because he said he’s applying a post-convention bump correction which pushes Harris down and I think there’s probably not much of a meaningful bump to actually correct in this case compared to prior elections.
One reason to bet no would be if it turns out he doesn’t have much of a drop off to that correction over this time period or if she has had an actual bump which is being appropriately corrected. Obviously many other reasons to bet yes or no exist.
@HankyUSA Very likely. I do not know what function he uses to reduce it over time and could very well be wrong in betting yes.
The problem is there are only 4 more daily updates left until resolution and Nate already stated he expects the bounce adjustment to be significant for another week or two. The Labor Day weekend also means fewer polls get released in the window. There's also a 6 point variance in win probability being required to overturn the Trump lead in one of the next 4 updates. For these reasons, I'm the biggest No holder in the market.
@PlainBG Makes sense. I kept my bet low for the reason that I was unsure how long his correction was calibrated to last.
Earlier today, Trump overtook Harris off the back of some strong polls in Pennsylvania.
Where has Nate Silver stated that Trump has overtaken Harris? This is the most recent forecast-related tweet of his that I can find (23h ago), which indicates that Harris has a 3.2% lead: https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1829565159586545684
@axiomnull Also you may have been looking at the polling average rather than the probability of winning. This market is about the latter.
Here is a screenshot showing the win probability over time: https://x.com/RadarHits/status/1829852580039836026
Trump overtook Harris a couple of days ago; see the resolution and discussion at https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/when-will-trump-overtake-harris-in