Nate Silver has left 538 but he continues to maintain his Presidential election model which attempts to put a figure on how likely each of the candidates are to win the electoral college and therefore win the election. The model is here (the actual model itself is only visible to subscribers, but the commentary is above the paywall):

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Trump was leading Biden by a wide margin but the first model to measure him against Harris gave her the lead. However, Trump overtook Harris a week ago and has extended his lead over the past few days. At the time of market creation, the model gives the contenders these chances:

Trump - 60.1%

Harris - 39.7%

Will Harris regain the lead in Nate Silver's model? If so, in which month will she first regain the lead?

Resolution notes:

• The primary source of truth for this market is Nate Silver's blog. Some of his content is subscriber-only, but the results of the model can usually be found in other media outlets including Nate Silver's own Twitter feed.

• This market only references Silver's model for winning the electoral collage (ie. winning the election) rather than winning the popular vote or getting ahead in the polling average

• If Nate Silver stops publishing a Harris vs Trump model for any reason (including one of the candidates withdrawing) before Harris has overtaken Trump and does not bring it back online by the time of the election, this market will resolve to the "she will not overtake him" option.

Related market - Silver's old home at 538 gives Harris a 55% chance of victory. Will Trump overtake Harris there? /SimonGrayson/when-will-trump-overtake-harris-in-tq3ucuxus2