Will GPT-4.5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?
15
240áš826Oct 1
81%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If OpenAI skips GPT-4.5, this resolves to N/A.
Otherwise starting from the first time it appears at all on the leaderboard, resolves YES if it hits the top spot, and NO if it does not.
Does not apply to any future versions that are also called "GPT 4.5-preview", just the first iteration to appear on the LLMSys leaderboard. If multiple appear at once (like Opus/Sonnet/Haiku), any of them count.
Update 2024-30-12 (PST): - If multiple models are tied for the #1 rank, the top spot will be determined based on ELO rankings. (AI summary of creator comment)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Sounds good
Related questions
Related questions
Will GPT-4.5 rank above Grok 3 on Chatbot Arena?
80% chance
Will GPT-5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?
85% chance
What will be GPT-5's score on LMSYS Chatbot Arena?
Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will GPT 4.5/GPT 5 have 30 more elo than #2 on the LMSYS leaderboard two weeks after it is released.
33% chance
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Will a chatbot from a Chinese company top the LMSYS leaderboard in 2025?
15% chance
Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Will a chatbot from a Chinese company top the LMSYS leaderboard in 2026?
20% chance
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
40% chance