It seems likely that Israel might invade southern Lebanon within the next few months. Recently, Iran threatened with "an obliterating war" if such an invasion should occur. This raises the question "How serious is their threat?"

The question resolves strictly following two existing markets:

The question resolves to N/A if the first market resolves to NO or either market resolves to N/A. It will resolve to YES, even if the Iranian attack happens before the invasion.