On X, about 90% of my followers are women who have AI-generated profile pictures and which post no original content. It's unclear to me what the purpose of these accounts is, because they simply like my posts and do nothing else, which actually helps me get more followers (if I cared about that.) I imagine these accounts outnumber humans on X and most humans' followers consist of these fake women.

I've noticed that accounts with similar characteristics are starting to appear on Manifold. The accounts post no questions, make no comments, like my comments, and spend all their mana bidding on my questions but have never bid on any other questions.

Will Manifold be able to prevent AI-generated accounts from taking over its platform, or will accounts like these start to outnumber real women?

This question will resolve to YES if, on December 31, 2024, 25% or more of accounts who "follow" this account have the following characteristics:

• They are young females

• They have never posted any questions

• They have around or less than the default amount of mana

Otherwise it will resolve to NO.

This question was edited to note that unless LLMs are cheap enough in late 2024 that I can run one on a 3060 (I'm not able to afford to stop training my stock trading models on the 4090s for this question), I will make a rough estimate of the number of followers myself, so I won't bet on this market. If it is possible to configure a smart LLM with little VRAM by that time, I will use the LLM to look through the profiles to get an exact count.