Will the 2024 US Presidential election be decided by a recount in Pennsylvania?
37
แน€6771
Jan 1
12%
chance

With Kamala Harris having picked Walz for Vice President instead of Shapiro, her odds of winning Pennsylvania significantly declined on all prediction markets. At the time of the question's posting, she was projected to win Georgia but not Pennsylvania, and come up 2 votes short. If the election were held today, there would likely be a Florida-style recount in Pennsylvania.

This market will resolve to YES if the 2024 Presidential election goes to a recount in Pennsylvania, and the electoral college winner of the entire US election is not projected by the Associated Press until either the recount is fully concluded or the AP judges that enough counties have finished the recount to project a winner.

The market will resolve to N/A if the election does not occur in 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.

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"Pennsylvania requires automatic recounts if the margin of victory for a statewide office or ballot question appearing on the ballot in every election district is less than or equal to 0.5% of all votes cast for the office or ballot measure."
Recount laws in Pennsylvania - Ballotpedia

Yes, but keep in mind that this market will only resolve if the election is decided by the recount, not simply if there is one.