Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Unemployment rate stays below 4%
Basic
2
Ṁ15Jan 15
47%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A time-sensitive copy of this market:
This market, however closes on 1/14/2024.
This is so we can measure Manifold's calibration against Yglesias' at the relative same point in time given enough traders (which I could make a further meta-market on). Manifold will have a 2 week advantage, but I want it to catch on (I also probably won't add the sports predictions which will obviously give Manifold an advantage). I will also resolve N/A if this actually occurs during the period before 1/14/2024.
Even though it closes on 1/14/2023, it will resolve when the linked market resolves.
Matt predicts 70% for this question
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions
Matt's calibration for reference:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Unemployment rate stays above 3%
84% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Unemployment rate stays above 3%
97% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Positive RGDP growth for each of the next four quarters (Q4 2023 - Q3 -2024)
79% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Last CPI print of the year shows annual inflation above 2%
66% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Last CPI print of the year shows annual inflation below 3%
71% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Positive RGDP growth for each of (Q4 2023 - Q3 2024)
65% chance
Will @MatthewYglesias's 2024 predictions perform at least as well as his 2023 predictions by his own assessment?
32% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: No Supreme Court vacancy
86% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Pro-GOP electoral college bias diminishes from its 2020 level
78% chance
2024 predictions - Matthew Yglesias vs Manifold: No recession in 2024
70% chance